Saturday 14 February 2026 – 19:30 CET Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como Serie A Matchday 25
After 15+ years analysing Serie A, I can tell you this: matches like this are where seasons are made or broken. Sixth-placed Como, chasing a first-ever European spot, host 18th-placed Fiorentina, who are fighting for survival. The contrast in momentum, quality and confidence could not be starker.
Recent Form & Momentum
Como are flying. Cesc Fabregas’ side sit on 41 points from 23 games (11W-8D-4L, 37-16) and have lost just once at home all season (6W-5D-1L). They’re coming off a heroic midweek Coppa Italia quarter-final win over Napoli on penalties – their second victory over Fiorentina in the space of three weeks (3-1 in the cup).
Nico Paz has been the star: 8 goals + 6 assists. Alvaro Morata looks sharp again, while Martin Baturina and Lucas Da Cunha provide creativity from midfield. The Lariani are organised, clinical on the break, and extremely hard to beat at the Sinigaglia.
Fiorentina are in freefall. Just 3 wins from 24 games, they sit three points above the drop zone and have kept only three clean sheets all season – the worst record in Serie A. Their away form is dire (1W-5D-6L), and they’ve now gone four games without a win in all competitions. January signings have brought some fresh legs, but the defence remains alarmingly porous.
Tactical Battle & Head-to-Head
Fabregas likes a fluid 4-2-3-1 – high pressing, quick transitions, and plenty of width. Como dominate possession (often 55-60%) and create high-quality chances.
Paolo Vanoli’s Fiorentina usually set up in a 4-3-3, but they’ve looked disjointed lately. They rely on counters and set-pieces, yet concede far too easily in transition.
Head-to-Head: Como have won the last two meetings (including a 3-1 Coppa Italia victory on 27 January) and are chasing a first league triple over Fiorentina since the 1950s. History is firmly on the hosts’ side.
Predicted Lineups & Team News
Como (4-2-3-1) Butez; Smolcic, Ramon, Kempf, Valle; Perrone, Da Cunha; Paz, Baturina, Vojvoda; Morata
Injuries: Assane Diao (knee) and Jayden Addai (thigh) are out. Goldaniga is a doubt. Otherwise, Fabregas has a strong squad available.
Fiorentina (4-3-3) De Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens; Fagioli, Mandragora, Brescianini; Solomon, Kean, Harrison
Injuries: Albert Gudmundsson (ankle) and Daniele Rugani are out. Tariq Lamptey remains long-term absent. Vanoli will be forced into changes after a busy January window.
Betting Angles
- Como to win – strong value around 1.70-1.75
- Over 2.5 goals – 17 of Fiorentina’s 24 league games have produced three or more goals
- Both teams to score – 17/24 Fiorentina games have seen BTTS
- Nico Paz anytime goalscorer – excellent price given his form and Fiorentina’s defensive issues
Accumulator tip: Como win + Over 2.5 goals pairs nicely with other Saturday favourites.
Score Prediction: Como 2-1 Fiorentina
Como are simply in a different league right now – better organised, higher quality, and playing at a venue where they rarely slip up. Fiorentina will fight (they always do), and with their recent transfer activity they might nick a goal on the counter or from a set-piece. But the hosts’ attacking firepower and home dominance should prove decisive.
I’m expecting an early goal from Como, a Viola response, then a late winner from the Lariani.
What do you think? Can struggling Fiorentina spring a surprise at the Sinigaglia, or will Como take another huge step towards Europe? Drop your predictions below – I’d love to hear them!
